So many 2022 prediction posts. Let’s jump right to 2023, shall we?
Here are my bets for 2023:
Pakistan, with $365M in 2021 startup funding (6X YoY growth), will see a major exit (likely in supply chain or e-commerce) that will drive a second generation of VC-backed startups there.
Bangladesh had similar metrics ($380M, up from $40M in 2020, although $250M went to one startup (bKash)) but gets far less investor or press attention than Pakistan. By 2023, revenues and the labor pool will reach a critical mass and it will become the next hot market (especially for India and Asia VCs).
In proptech, there will be some huge exits in 3D-printed construction, property management B2B SaaS, and new marketplaces for fractional ownership/investment.
In the energy sector, we’ll start to see the earliest revenue from new types of geothermal in large enterprise plants, hydrogen-powered aircraft (although mass market will be in the 2030s), and autonomous VTOL electric aircraft used for supply chain. And there will be an increase in cleaner hydrogen production that comes to market at lower prices.
In fintech, DeFi transactions will finally reach volumes that trigger significant regulatory crackdowns by major governments. Governments are slow moving, but have massive resources to eventually deploy when taxes, criminal activity and macro-currency power are on the line. I don’t know what the outcome will be, but I think most DeFi startups underestimate the risks.
Also in fintech, there will be a wave of decacorn exits from B2B credit companies (of both the Brex/Ramp variety, and the Khatabook variety) comparable to the Buy Now Pay Later wave this year.
In supply chain, we’ll see the next Flexport (freight forwarder) emerge for global logistics coordination, and in response to this year’s supply chain woes, it will be even more multimodal and more decentralized.
Also in supply chain, autonomous robots, drones and trucks (both fully autonomous and human-in-the-loop) will be deployed beyond the pilot phase, and generate more earnings than self-driving car companies aimed at consumer rides (although exits for the latter may continue to be quite large).
At the intersection of supply chain and fintech, as large enterprises look for more supply chain flexibility, modernized trade financing unicorns will emerge to play a critical role for suppliers who could experience more order volatility.
In biotech, many mRNA therapeutics companies will have exits after reaching the end of Phase 1 or Phase 2 trials.
In digital health, both telehealth and machine learning powered diagnostics will go beyond early adopters to reach more mainstream levels of usage.
In gaming, both sports betting and NFTs will reach their peak in terms of startup funding. Sports betting revenues will keep growing. NFTs will not.
In B2B SaaS, there will be a shakeout in no-code / low-code tools startups, especially around machine learning. The winners will win big with crazy revenue multiples. But most of these are not as differentiated in the long run as they think they are.
Despite the constant drumbeat around the consumer metaverse today, we’ll start to see substantial revenue flowing first to enterprise AR in areas as diverse as manufacturing, medicine and education (a lot more than consumer VR, which will also keep growing).